CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS 

• Climate tipping points represent critical thresholds in natural systems, beyond which irreversible and catastrophic consequences for the planet can occur, leading to further warming. An example of this is when rising global temperatures trigger transformations like rainforests transitioning into dry savannahs. Even if the initial drivers of change cease, self-perpetuating feedback loops can maintain the new state, perpetuating the tipping point effect.
• Moreover, breaching one tipping point can amplify the likelihood of surpassing others, setting off a chain reaction of catastrophic events. For instance, unchecked global warming can result in irreversible ice melt from the Greenland ice sheet. This could disrupt the ocean's heat circulation, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), subsequently impacting the monsoon system in South America. Changes in the monsoon system could, in turn, elevate the occurrence of droughts in the Amazon rainforest, exacerbating the situation.
• Scientists have identified various climate tipping points across the Earth system, broadly categorized into cryosphere, ocean-atmosphere, and biosphere. These tipping points range from the melting of ice sheets to the decline of coral reefs, representing critical junctures with potentially far-reaching consequences for the global climate.

3. Are We Nearing Climate Tipping Points?

• According to the Global Tipping Points Report, led by Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, and supported by over 200 researchers from 90 organizations across 26 countries, the world is perilously close to breaching several climate tipping points.
• The report highlighted that five major tipping points are already at risk of being crossed due to current levels of warming, with an additional three threatened by the 2030s as global temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
• Currently, with Earth being 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, the tipping points in jeopardy include the collapse of major ice sheets in Greenland and the West Antarctic, widespread thawing of permafrost, death of coral reefs in warm waters, and the collapse of an oceanic current in the North Atlantic.
• Once the planet surpasses the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, additional tipping points such as the demise of boreal forests, mangroves, and seagrass meadows may be breached.
• The report warns that crossing these tipping points could have catastrophic consequences for societies, potentially escalating violent conflicts, mass displacement, and financial instability.

4. How to Avoid Breaching Climate Tipping Points?

• Preventing the breach of climate tipping points requires urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, global efforts thus far have fallen short. In 2023, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere reached unprecedented levels, as reported by C3S and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Carbon dioxide concentrations rose by 2.4 parts per million (ppm) compared to 2022, while methane concentrations increased by 11 parts per billion (ppb).
• The Global Tipping Points Report emphasized that current global governance mechanisms are inadequate to effectively mitigate tipping point risks, especially in an equitable manner. The report cautioned that without prompt and decisive action, some tipping points may still be crossed by the time sufficient emergency measures are implemented on a global scale.

To avoid breaching tipping points, urgent and concerted efforts are needed to:

1. Implement ambitious policies and measures to significantly reduce emissions from various sources, including fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and industrial processes.
2. Accelerate the transition towards renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power to decarbonize energy systems.
3. Preserve and restore ecosystems such as forests, wetlands, and mangroves, which act as carbon sinks and help regulate the climate.
4. Promote sustainable agriculture, land use, and transportation practices to minimize emissions and environmental degradation.
5. Strengthen international cooperation and agreements to address climate change comprehensively and equitably, with a focus on supporting vulnerable communities and countries.